The decade bet: why spirits supply chain decisions in 2026 will define who wins in 2035

Someone at your company is making a barrel-fill decision right now that won't produce revenue until 2034.

Someone else is scrambling to reforecast Q2 because Canadian provinces banned American whiskey and exports dropped 73%.

These two people probably don't talk enough.

That tension sits at the heart of spirits supply chain planning in 2026. You need the longest planning horizons in consumer goods AND the fastest reflexes. Most organizations haven't reconciled those two things.

I recently spoke to the DISCUS Supply Chain Committee about this challenge. I called the talk "The Decade Bet" because that's what these decisions are: bets on what the world looks like in 2035. Here's the core of what I shared, along with three tactics any organization can use this week.

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Every spirits company is making five bets right now

Whether you realize it or not, your organization is making five simultaneous decade bets. Each decision compounds over years, not quarters. Each shapes your competitive position in 2035.

The aging bet. How much to lay down given the inventory overhang. There are 1.5 billion proof gallons of American whiskey in warehouses right now. Jim Beam paused production at its main distillery for all of 2026. Cut barrel fill now and you could be short in 2032. Overfill and you're paying carrying costs on inventory that might not move for a decade.

The category bet. RTDs hit $3.8 billion in 2025, growing at 16.4%, with volume quadrupling in five years. That's not a trend. It's a structural shift requiring completely different supply chain capabilities: different packaging, different production, different distribution velocity. Every dollar you invest in RTD capability is a dollar you're not investing in aged inventory.

The geography bet. The EU represents roughly 35% of U.S. spirits exports, and a 15% U.S. tariff on EU spirit imports is now in play. Canadian provinces banned American whiskey, dropping exports 73%. Do you redirect to Asia-Pacific? Wait for tariff resolution? Each path requires years of investment.

The supplier bet. The glass crisis of 2021–2022 taught us about single-source risk when lead times went from 8–12 weeks to 6–12 months. Cooperage relationships take 2-3 years to build. Agave prices swing 300% on a 7–10 year growing cycle. Dual sourcing costs more today but prevents shutdowns tomorrow.

The capability bet. This is the one that determines the quality of the other four. How good are your planning tools? How aligned are your functions? Can you run scenarios and update them monthly? The companies making the best decade bets are the ones who can see most clearly.

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These bets look different by category

The five bets are universal, but what they look like depends on your category.

For American whiskey, oversupply signals may lead to cutting production, risking future shortages of 8–10 year aged inventory when demand rebounds. For agave spirits, 7–10 year plant cycles mean supply decisions made today lock in costs and availability for a decade. Grower contracts, land commitments, and harvest timing are all decade bets.

RTDs and non-aged spirits face a different version: volume can surge faster than co-packer capacity can scale. Commit too early and you risk overcapacity. Wait and you lose shelf space. Flavor and packaging supply chains add their own lead times.

For imported brands, geopolitical shifts can disrupt supply overnight with no domestic fallback. The bet is on the stability of your source market and your ability to pivot if access closes.

Even if you're not a producer, you’re still making decade bets. Glass makers with 10-year furnace investments. Cooperages building capacity for a category that's pausing production. 3PLs investing in warehouse footprint and cold chain capability. The framework is the same. The inputs are different. The urgency is identical.

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Why these bets are harder than they've ever been

Three things are compounding at once.

Simultaneous uncertainties. It’s not just tariffs. It's tariffs AND consumer shifts AND agricultural volatility AND packaging supply constraints AND distributor consolidation, all happening simultaneously. Any one of these is manageable. All of them together means your planning assumptions are under pressure from every direction.

The longest planning horizons in consumer goods. A barrel-fill mistake in 2026 doesn’t show up until 2034. Kentucky angel's share takes 3-5% per year, meaning 30–40% of your inventory evaporates over a decade. The capital is locked. You can't course-correct mid-stream.

The weakest demand signal in consumer goods. The three-tier system means you see depletions, not consumer demand. There's an entire layer of distributor and retail inventory between you and the actual signal. You're making decade bets from 12-month data.

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A framework for better bets

Making decade bets is hard. But it doesn’t have to be a guessing game. Three principles can help you make smarter, more confident decisions.

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1. Make assumptions explicit

Every long-range plan embeds assumptions. The dangerous ones are the assumptions you didn't know you were making, especially about stability.

Your trade environment, supply lead times, consumer demand signals, and input costs all deserve scrutiny. Whether or not tariffs change, your supply chain must operate as if volatility is the baseline. Scenario planning is the tool.

Review quarterly. Know which assumptions, if wrong, change everything.

Tactic you can use Monday: Pull out your current long-range plan or supply chain forecast. List every assumption it depends on. Highlight the three that, if wrong, would change the most. That’s your watch list.

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2. Plan in scenarios, decide at triggers

Don't wait for certainty. Volatility is the baseline. Build your plan around triggers, not forecasts.

Define conditions that would change your plan. If trade barriers escalate further, activate your domestic market pivot playbook. If agave spot prices spike more than 30%, execute your contracted supply hedge. If RTD co-packer lead times exceed 6 months, qualify a backup partner.

When conditions change, you don't need to reconvene a strategy offsite. You've already done the thinking. You just execute.

Tactic you can use Monday: Pick your single biggest uncertainty. Write three scenarios: resolve, status quo, escalate. Define one trigger and one action per scenario. That's a working playbook.

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3. Connect your bets

Aging, category, geography, supplier, and capability bets share capital, capacity, and talent. See them as a portfolio, not separate line items.

Capital going to RTD capability is capital not aging in barrels. Supplier diversification costs may compete with capacity expansion. Geographic diversification requires different packaging, labeling, and compliance.

The question: across all five bets, are you allocating resources as a portfolio, or is each function making their bet independently?

Tactic you can use Monday: Map your five bets on one page. Draw lines between the ones that compete for the same capital, capacity, or talent. Share that page with your leadership team. Most organizations have never seen their decade bets as a connected portfolio.

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The bet you’re already making

Here's the thing that keeps me up at night about this topic.

If you haven’t explicitly decided on these five bets, you’ve implicitly decided by not deciding. Last year’s barrel-fill plan, carried forward without review, is still a bet. It’s just a bet based on last year's assumptions. Before the U.S. put 15% on EU spirits. Before Canadian provinces banned American whiskey and exports dropped 73%. Before production pauses started.

The decade bet is happening whether you’re intentional about it or not. The only question is whether you're making it with your eyes open.

Shawn Zizzo is the CEO and Founder of Claret, an integrated business planning platform built for the beverage alcohol industry. This article is adapted from his presentation to the DISCUS Supply Chain Committee on March 10, 2026.